Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 72

New Orleans Saints 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

(13:13) 39-L.Hedley punts 46 yards to ATL 26, Center-49-Z.Wood. 20-D.Alford to ATL 35 for 9 yards (48-J.Gray; 46-A.Prentice).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
59% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 72, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model