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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 21

New Orleans Saints 12 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 19-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.83 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 31, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model