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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 35

New Orleans Saints 15 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(:30) 19-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +1.84 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 35, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 45, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model