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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 7

New Orleans Saints 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 19-B.Grupe 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.60 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 7, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model