4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 44

Atlanta Falcons 14 – New Orleans Saints 9

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 13-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to NO 8, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 5-L.Bowden.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.71 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model