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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 31

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(5:09) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder right end to NO 32 for -1 yards (6-M.Maye, 20-P.Werner).

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.26 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 31, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 41, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model