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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
Sunday 2023-11-26 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

JAX
37.2%
HOU
62.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to HOU: C.J. Stroud (HOU) +0.164 vs Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.011 EPA/dropback
  • HOU offense: +0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

JAX 22
–
HOU 26
Projected margin: HOU by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

JAX

Tyson Campbell CB Out Hamstring
Zay Jones WR Questionable Knee
Roy Robertson-Harris DT Questionable Ankle

HOU

Noah Brown WR Out Knee
Jake Hansen LB Out Hamstring
Jimmie Ward S Out Hamstring
Case Keenum QB Questionable Calf
Dameon Pierce RB Questionable Ankle
Juice Scruggs C Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 24
–
HOU 21

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:58 FG JAX (5:58) 10-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 3 – HOU 0
  • Q2 09:44 TD JAX (9:44) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 9 – HOU 0
  • Q2 06:49 TD HOU (6:49) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 3-T.Dell for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 10 – HOU 6
  • Q2 02:28 FG JAX (2:28) 10-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 13 – HOU 7
  • Q3 08:16 TD HOU (8:16) 7-C.Stroud scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – HOU 13
  • Q3 04:34 TD JAX (4:34) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 0-C.Ridley for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 19 – HOU 14
  • Q4 11:25 FG JAX (11:25) 10-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 24 – HOU 14
  • Q4 05:22 TD HOU (5:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 24 – HOU 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:56) 11-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to JAX 13, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 91%

    (5:58) 10-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:41) 11-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to JAX 23, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-P.Washington pushed ob at JAX 45 for 22 yards (20-K.Hollman).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 33%

    (3:42) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to HOU 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (14:29) 11-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to JAX 32, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 15 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 81%

    (2:28) 10-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 79%

    (:25) 16-M.Ammendola 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 18 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:41) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to JAX 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 72%

    (11:25) 10-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:22) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 86-D.Schultz.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 13 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 68%

    (7:10) 10-B.McManus 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 46 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 45%

    (3:07) 9-L.Cooke punts 35 yards to HOU 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 12 at the 39 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 63%

    (:34) 16-M.Ammendola 58 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.