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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 22

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 10-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.58 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 22, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model