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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 31

Houston Texans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(:25) 16-M.Ammendola 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.81 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 31, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 41, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model