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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 77

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(14:29) 11-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to JAX 32, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.59 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 77, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 34, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model