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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 30

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:28) 10-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.78 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model