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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 35

Jacksonville Jaguars 21 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 10-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.03 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model