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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 76

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 11-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to JAX 23, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-P.Washington pushed ob at JAX 45 for 22 yards (20-K.Hollman).

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 76, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 34, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model