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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 18 at the 59

Houston Texans 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 21

What Actually Happened

(2:41) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to JAX 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.98 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 59, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 18, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model