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CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Frank Reich
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2023-11-26 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 36.0

Win Probability

CAR
31.3%
TEN
68.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.155 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to TEN: Will Levis (TEN) -0.046 vs Bryce Young (CAR) -0.275 EPA/dropback
  • TEN defense: +0.073 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 17
–
TEN 23
Projected margin: TEN by 6 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

CAR

Hayden Hurst TE Out Concussion
Jeremy Chinn S Out Quadricep
Yetur Gross-Matos LB Out Hamstring
C.J. Henderson CB Doubtful Concussion
Jaycee Horn CB Doubtful Hamstring
Sam Franklin S Questionable Quadricep
Marquis Haynes LB Questionable Back
Frankie Luvu LB Questionable Shoulder

TEN

Treylon Burks WR Out Concussion
Christopher Hubbard T Out Biceps
Luke Gifford LB Questionable Shin
Terrell Edmunds S Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 10
–
TEN 17

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:40 TD TEN (:40) 22-D.Henry left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – TEN 6
  • Q2 08:56 FG CAR (8:56) 4-E.Pineiro 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 3 – TEN 7
  • Q2 02:32 TD TEN (2:32) 22-D.Henry left guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 3 – TEN 13
  • Q2 00:03 FG TEN (:03) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. CAR 3 – TEN 17
  • Q3 08:09 TD CAR (8:09) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 9 – TEN 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 9 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:21) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:21) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to TEN 7, Center-44-J.Jansen. 33-E.Garror to TEN 30 for 23 yards (80-I.Thomas). PENALTY on TEN-40-A.Kendall, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at TEN 18.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (6:25) 22-D.Henry left end to TEN 33 for 3 yards (24-V.Bell).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 59%

    (10:16) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 84-S.Sullivan to TEN 24 for 13 yards (35-K.Wallace). Tennessee challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 18 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 71%

    (8:56) 4-E.Pineiro 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 17 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:46) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 71 yards to CAR 4, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-40-A.Kendall.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:46) 10-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to TEN 33, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (1:00) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 54 yards to CAR 7, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 10 for 3 yards (14-C.Dowell).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (:35) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to TEN 38, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 33-E.Garror.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (8:09) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:29) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 56 yards to CAR 6, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-I.Smith-Marsette ran ob at CAR 12 for 6 yards (40-A.Kendall; 37-A.Hooker).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 19 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (:32) 10-J.Hekker punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (14:07) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 44 yards to CAR 11, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 16 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (11:42) 10-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to TEN 21, Center-44-J.Jansen. 33-E.Garror pushed ob at TEN 26 for 5 yards (29-D.Jamison).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 32%

    (10:08) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 38 yards to CAR 9, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 14 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 21%

    (6:02) 10-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to TEN 16, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-33-T.Davis.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 9 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 19%

    (3:06) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 6 at the 76 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 17-D.Chark to CAR 24 for no gain (37-A.Hooker).