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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 37

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(10:16) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 84-S.Sullivan to TEN 24 for 13 yards (35-K.Wallace). Tennessee challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.71 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.82 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT +0.27 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model