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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 18 at the 32

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 4-E.Pineiro 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.94 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT +0.29 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model