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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 62

Tennessee Titans 17 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 56 yards to CAR 6, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-I.Smith-Marsette ran ob at CAR 12 for 6 yards (40-A.Kendall; 37-A.Hooker).

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.65 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model