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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 70

Tennessee Titans 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 22-D.Henry left end to TEN 33 for 3 yards (24-V.Bell).

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.67 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model