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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 55

Tennessee Titans 17 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(14:07) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 44 yards to CAR 11, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.71 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP