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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2023-11-19 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

TEN
41.2%
JAX
58.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to JAX: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.039 vs Will Levis (TEN) -0.079 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

TEN 21
–
JAX 23
Projected margin: JAX by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

TEN

Treylon Burks WR Out Concussion
Andre Dillard T Out Concussion
Sean Murphy-Bunting CB Out Thumb
Luke Gifford LB Questionable Shin
Daniel Brunskill G Questionable Ankle

JAX

Jamal Agnew WR Out Shoulder
Tyson Campbell CB Out Hamstring
Anton Harrison T Questionable Back
Zay Jones WR Questionable Knee
Roy Robertson-Harris DT Questionable Ankle
Parker Washington WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 14
–
JAX 34

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:03 TD JAX (3:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 0-C.Ridley for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – JAX 6
  • Q2 02:47 FG JAX (2:47) 10-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. TEN 0 – JAX 10
  • Q2 00:18 FG JAX (:18) 10-B.McManus 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. TEN 0 – JAX 13
  • Q3 09:21 TD JAX (9:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – JAX 19
  • Q3 03:30 TD JAX (3:30) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 0-C.Ridley for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – JAX 26
  • Q3 00:05 TD TEN (:05) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 8-W.Levis pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – JAX 27
  • Q4 07:34 TD JAX (7:34) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – JAX 33
  • Q4 04:34 TD TEN (4:34) 8-W.Levis pass short right to 98-J.Simmons for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – JAX 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:36) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 61 yards to JAX 14, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-14-C.Dowell.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (9:26) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to TEN 13, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:58) 22-D.Henry up the middle to JAX 49 for 5 yards (44-T.Walker, 23-F.Oluokun).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 14 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 58%

    (9:13) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 39 yards to JAX 1, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-11-C.Moore. PENALTY on TEN-40-A.Kendall, Illegal Kick/Kicking Loose Ball, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 1.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 96%

    (2:47) 10-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:54) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 41 yards to JAX 29, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (:18) 10-B.McManus 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 4 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 58%

    (10:56) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 25-D.Johnson to TEN 6 for 34 yards (35-K.Wallace).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (7:00) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 73 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:10) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to TEN 21, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 33-E.Garror to TEN 36 for 15 yards (46-R.Matiscik). FUMBLES (46-R.Matiscik), RECOVERED by JAX-46-R.Matiscik at TEN 36.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 11
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 97%

    (8:58) 4-T.Bigsby right guard to TEN 8 for 3 yards (58-H.Landry, 56-M.Rice).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 37 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 66%

    (2:54) 4-T.Bigsby up the middle to TEN 31 for 6 yards (44-M.Brown, 38-T.Edmunds).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 28 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.44 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 83%

    (:32) 4-T.Bigsby right guard to TEN 28 for no gain (58-H.Landry).