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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 73

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(7:00) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 73 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.98 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 73, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 31, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP