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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 27 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(13:10) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to TEN 21, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 33-E.Garror to TEN 36 for 15 yards (46-R.Matiscik). FUMBLES (46-R.Matiscik), RECOVERED by JAX-46-R.Matiscik at TEN 36.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 70, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 28, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model