Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 75

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(12:36) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 61 yards to JAX 14, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-14-C.Dowell.

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 75, worth -4.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model