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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 6

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(:18) 10-B.McManus 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +3.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.63 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 6, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.82 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.08 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model