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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 12

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 10-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.33 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP