4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 40

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:56) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 25-D.Johnson to TEN 6 for 34 yards (35-K.Wallace).

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.58 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 40, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model