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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 28

Jacksonville Jaguars 34 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(:32) 4-T.Bigsby right guard to TEN 28 for no gain (58-H.Landry).

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +2.68 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 28, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.79 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 38, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.44 EP