Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- SF offense: +0.169 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- Brock Purdy (SF): +0.319 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- SF defense: -0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- TB crossing 3 time zone(s)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 11
TB
SF
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 03:59 TD SF (3:59) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – SF 6
- Q2 07:25 FG SF (7:25) 4-J.Moody 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. TB 0 – SF 10
- Q2 01:52 TD TB (1:52) (No Huddle) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – SF 10
- Q2 00:20 FG SF (:20) 4-J.Moody 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. TB 7 – SF 13
- Q3 11:06 TD SF (11:06) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 11-B.Aiyuk for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB-35-J.Dean was injured during the play. TB 7 – SF 19
- Q3 01:46 TD SF (1:46) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 7 – SF 26
- Q4 14:22 TD TB (14:22) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 13 – SF 27
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 SF 4th & 19 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(12:13) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to TB 22, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins. PENALTY on SF-30-G.Odum, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at TB 22.
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Q1 TB 4th & 7 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(11:16) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to SF 18, Center-97-Z.Triner. 3-R.McCloud to SF 20 for 2 yards (26-K.Merriweather; 32-J.Hayes).
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Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 92%
(7:25) 4-J.Moody 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 97%
(:20) 4-J.Moody 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q3 TB 4th & 3 at the 58Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 53%
(12:36) 5-J.Camarda punts 56 yards to SF 2, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.
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Q3 TB 4th & 10 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(7:08) 5-J.Camarda to TB 19 for -14 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at TB 19. 5-J.Camarda punts 46 yards to SF 21, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.
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Q4 SF 4th & 7 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(12:36) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 60 yards to TB 7, Center-46-T.Pepper. 83-D.Thompkins pushed ob at TB 20 for 13 yards (30-G.Odum).
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Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 29Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 79%
(7:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 13-M.Evans to SF 18 for 11 yards (20-A.Thomas; 27-J.Brown).
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Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 12Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 96%
(6:45) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 13-M.Evans (27-J.Brown) [26-I.Oliver].
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Q4 SF 4th & 7 at the 85 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(4:28) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to TB 36, Center-46-T.Pepper. 83-D.Thompkins ran ob at SF 13 for 51 yards (53-D.Winters).
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Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 47 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72% p(FG) 34%
(2:19) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard to TB 47 for no gain (32-J.Hayes; 31-A.Winfield).
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Q4 TB 4th & 18 at the 48 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 32%
(1:12) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right (7-C.Ward).