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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 67

San Francisco 49ers 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(12:36) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 60 yards to TB 7, Center-46-T.Pepper. 83-D.Thompkins pushed ob at TB 20 for 13 yards (30-G.Odum).

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.81 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model