Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 60

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(11:16) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to SF 18, Center-97-Z.Triner. 3-R.McCloud to SF 20 for 2 yards (26-K.Merriweather; 32-J.Hayes).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.34 EP
61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model