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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – San Francisco 49ers 27

What Actually Happened

(6:45) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 13-M.Evans (27-J.Brown) [26-I.Oliver].

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.31 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model