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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 58

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(12:36) 5-J.Camarda punts 56 yards to SF 2, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.31 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP