Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 19 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:13) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to TB 22, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins. PENALTY on SF-30-G.Odum, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at TB 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.39 EP
72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model