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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 18 at the 48

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – San Francisco 49ers 27

What Actually Happened

(1:12) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right (7-C.Ward).

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.76 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 48, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model