Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 67

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 20

(7:08) 5-J.Camarda to TB 19 for -14 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at TB 19. 5-J.Camarda punts 46 yards to SF 21, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.05 EP
66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model