4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2023-11-12 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

SF
59.6%
JAX
40.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.148 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Brock Purdy (SF): +0.287 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • JAX defense: -0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • SF defense: -0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 23
–
JAX 21
Projected margin: SF by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

SF

Aaron Banks G Out Toe
Drake Jackson DE Out Knee
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles LB Questionable Ankle
Robert Beal DE Questionable Hamstring
Darrell Luter CB Questionable Knee
Samuel Womack CB Questionable Knee
Javon Hargrave DT Questionable Knee
Trent Williams T Questionable Ankle

JAX

Zay Jones WR Out Knee
Tyson Campbell CB Questionable Hamstring
Andre Cisco S Questionable Hamstring
Ezra Cleveland G Questionable Toe
Daniel Thomas S Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 34
–
JAX 3

Prediction missed by 29 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:42 TD SF (11:42) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 11-B.Aiyuk for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – JAX 0
  • Q1 04:25 FG SF (4:25) 4-J.Moody 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 10 – JAX 0
  • Q2 04:24 FG JAX (4:24) 10-B.McManus 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. SF 10 – JAX 3
  • Q2 00:03 FG SF (:03) 4-J.Moody 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 13 – JAX 3
  • Q3 14:21 TD SF (14:21) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 19 – JAX 3
  • Q3 01:29 TD SF (1:29) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel left end for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 26 – JAX 3
  • Q4 12:48 TD SF (12:48) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 44-K.Juszczyk for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 33 – JAX 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:49) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to SF 35, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 3-R.McCloud to SF 43 for 8 yards (46-R.Matiscik).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:09) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to SF 29, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 3-R.McCloud ran ob at SF 38 for 9 yards (48-C.Muma).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 12 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 90%

    (4:25) 4-J.Moody 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:40) 9-L.Cooke punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (15:00) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to JAX 28, Center-46-T.Pepper. 13-C.Kirk pushed ob at JAX 43 for 15 yards (24-J.Mason).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 16 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:08) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 56 yards to JAX 1, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-38-S.Jean-Charles.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 92%

    (4:24) 10-B.McManus 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 14 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 93%

    (:03) 4-J.Moody 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 4 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 24%

    (8:35) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 36 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 15 at the 57
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 26%

    (14:22) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Warner [98-J.Hargrave] at SF 38. 54-F.Warner pushed ob at JAX 40 for 22 yards (1-T.Etienne).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:57) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to SF 26, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 3-R.McCloud to SF 31 for 5 yards (48-C.Muma).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 5 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 78%

    (6:01) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey right end pushed ob at JAX 10 for 19 yards (33-D.Lloyd).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 5 at the 5 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (3:01) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 23-C.McCaffrey (31-Dari.Williams).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 89 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (1:54) 9-L.Cooke punts 62 yards to SF 27, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 10-R.Bell to SF 35 for 8 yards (26-A.Johnson).