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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 29

San Francisco 49ers 34 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(6:01) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey right end pushed ob at JAX 10 for 19 yards (33-D.Lloyd).

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.02 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 29, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 39, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model