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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 5

San Francisco 49ers 34 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(3:01) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 23-C.McCaffrey (31-Dari.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +2.45 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.49 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 5, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +2.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.37 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model