Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 19 at the 84

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – San Francisco 49ers 34

(11:57) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to SF 26, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 3-R.McCloud to SF 31 for 5 yards (48-C.Muma).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.85 EP
74% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model