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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 51

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(8:35) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 36 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.95 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 51, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.72 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP