Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 56

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(1:40) 9-L.Cooke punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.00 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model