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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 77

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to JAX 28, Center-46-T.Pepper. 13-C.Kirk pushed ob at JAX 43 for 15 yards (24-J.Mason).

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 77, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 34, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model