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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
Sunday 2023-11-12 · 16:05 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

DET
51.4%
LAC
48.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • DET on 7 more days rest than LAC
  • LAC offense: +0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET defense: -0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: Justin Herbert (LAC) +0.151 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.157 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

DET 26
–
LAC 25
Projected margin: DET by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

DET

Halapoulivaati Vaitai G Out Back
Levi Onwuzurike DE Doubtful Hip
Dan Skipper T Questionable Ribs
Donovan Peoples-Jones WR Questionable Ribs

LAC

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 41
–
LAC 38

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 28 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:13 FG DET (10:13) 36-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 3 – LAC 0
  • Q1 06:58 FG LAC (6:58) 11-C.Dicker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. DET 3 – LAC 3
  • Q1 04:22 TD DET (4:22) 26-J.Gibbs left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 9 – LAC 3
  • Q2 07:34 TD DET (7:34) 26-J.Gibbs right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 16 – LAC 3
  • Q2 03:27 TD LAC (3:27) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 13-K.Allen for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 17 – LAC 9
  • Q2 03:21 TD DET (3:21) 5-D.Montgomery left guard for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. DET 23 – LAC 10
  • Q2 00:29 TD LAC (:29) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 24 – LAC 16
  • Q3 08:03 TD LAC (8:03) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-J.Guyton for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 24 – LAC 23
  • Q3 04:36 TD DET (4:36) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 30 – LAC 24
  • Q4 11:33 TD LAC (11:33) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 1-Q.Johnston for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 31 – LAC 30
  • Q4 07:35 TD DET (7:35) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 89-B.Wright for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 37 – LAC 31
  • Q4 03:42 TD LAC (3:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 13-K.Allen for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 38 – LAC 37
  • Q4 00:02 FG DET (:02) 36-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 41 – LAC 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:44) 16-J.Scott punts 58 yards to DET 13, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-K.Raymond to DET 25 for 12 yards (47-J.Harris).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 12 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (10:13) 36-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 81%

    (6:58) 11-C.Dicker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 5 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 84%

    (2:57) (Shotgun) 5-D.Montgomery right guard to LAC 22 for 6 yards (20-D.Marlowe, 45-T.Tuipulotu).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 1 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 96%

    (:12) 14-A.St. Brown left end to LAC 10 for 3 yards (32-A.Gilman).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (13:14) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right [98-A.Johnson].

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (12:24) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to DET 40, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (7:34) 26-J.Gibbs right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (:29) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 13 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 68%

    (12:34) 3-J.Fox punts 29 yards to LAC 8, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (11:33) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 1-Q.Johnston for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 38 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 65%

    (3:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 13-K.Allen for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 87%

    (1:47) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 87-S.LaPorta to LAC 20 for 6 yards (3-D.James, 33-D.Leonard).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 12 at the 22 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 91%

    (:02) 36-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.