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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 22

Detroit Lions 38 – Los Angeles Chargers 38

What Actually Happened

(:02) 36-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +1.58 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 32, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model