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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 2

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(:29) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.39 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 2, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +2.50 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.35 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model