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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 37

Detroit Lions 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(12:34) 3-J.Fox punts 29 yards to LAC 8, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.31 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.16 EP
KICK +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP