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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 14

Detroit Lions 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 36-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.16 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model