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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 30

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 11-C.Dicker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.45 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP