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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q1
Detroit Lions
4th & 1 at the 13
Detroit Lions 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 3
What Actually Happened
(:12) 14-A.St. Brown left end to LAC 10 for 3 yards (32-A.Gilman).
The Three Options
GO
+3.06 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.89 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.68 EP
KICK
+1.39 EP
- 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
- 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT
-0.48 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
